#IMadeMyMark: Political predictions on elections
The RECORD spoke to political analysts on what they thought we could expect from the elections and whether our country was ready for an election.
SOUTH AFRICA is a few days away from the 2019 provincial and national elections, with this year’s elections believed to be major compared to previous elections.
The RECORD spoke to political analysts on what they thought we could expect from the elections and whether our country was ready for an election?
Kobus Schoeman
Predictions:
The ANC is bound to win this year’s elections with a smaller margin than preferred. And the DA might gain some ground.
The latter is confident they will conquer Gauteng. There is a fair probability to achieve this – given their control over the Johannesburg and Tshwane metros.
DA Gauteng premier candidate Solly Msimanga is on an aggressive campaign to command the province. The party also has an arsenal of issues with which to take on the ANC.
Ongoing revelations of corruption among senior ANC stalwarts are used extensively by the DA to discredit the so-called morally bankrupt ANC. Another campaign issue utilised by the DA is the incapacity of Eskom to keep the lights on. From there the DA slogan, “We will keep the lights on”.
The Gauteng e-toll issue is also a contentious one, which hits the emotional sweet spot of voters. To this end, Msimanga set alight hundreds of e-toll statements outside the South African National Roads Agency offices recently.
However, ANC supporters tend to stay loyal to their party. Those who might acknowledge the red lights of corruption, incapacity for service delivery and lacking accountability by the ANC over the past 25 years might rather be obliged to abstain from voting, rather than add their vote to a different party. There still seems to be reluctance among some traditional ANC supporters to commit a vote to any party opposing the ANC.
Readiness:
Only time will tell if South Africa is ready for this year’s election. May 8 will be the moment of truth.
We might be ready for this year’s elections – technically and considering the available resources. The Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) officials have stated publicly over the past weeks they are up for the challenge.
*Kobus Schoeman is a freelance journalist, lecturer, trainer and photographer with a master’s degree in international politics.
Koketso Ramorei
Predictions:
“This year’s elections will be stormily contested because there’s a variety of choice for voters. The political landscape currently suggests it will be a tough contest between the three leading parties and the smaller parties as well.
I think, in terms of the national ballot, there’s a very huge chance the ANC will get less than 55 per cent and that suggests the EFF, the DA and perhaps these newcomers – Good, UDM, AZAPO and ACDP – will share the scores of the remaining margins. In terms of provincial elections, there’s a high chance and this is based on the trend that is currently occurring that the DA will do very well in the Western Cape as well as Gauteng.
There’s a chance they might win outright or go into coalition with other parties as well. It is likely they will dominate the Northern Cape, where the DA will come out very strong. But the ANC will retain other provinces, namely Limpopo, Free State and Mpumalanga for instance, based on the trends we currently see.”
Readiness:
“South Africa is ready for elections, we know the IEC has been preparing for a very long time for these elections. The security cluster has been hard at work heading towards these elections, so the country is ready for these elections. The people who could not be ready are the citizens in terms of making sure they know which parties to choose from. That would depend on the party’s effort to convince their followers because of the variety that has been composed, which also brings an element of indecisiveness to the eyes of the voters. In general, the country is ready for the elections, we know institutions from outside have been coming to the country and doing polls to check the readiness of the country for our elections.”
*Koketso Ramorei is a political commentator and reporter for SADC News.
Zaminkosi Nkosi
Predictions:
“As we approach May, which is obviously a very important month for South African citizens, we cannot run away from the fact that political reputations past, present and future hang in the balance. I, as a young South African, and the masses will always be historical when it comes to casting our vote or commenting on politics, in consideration of the current affairs of SA politics, then we predict the future of our country. At this point, things are not so favourable for the ruling party considering the fact that most young people are uninterested in politics and careless because they believe it is no use participating when things will always remain the same. There will be a strong contest among leading parties – ANC, EFF and DA. Although the EFF makes a lot of sense, they scare me as they project their views in a very aggressive way or violent manner, and violence is no solution at all. I honestly think they are militant about everything.”
Readiness:
“I honestly do not think the country is ready for this year’s elections. I think the ruling party needed more time to improve themselves and more time to implement democratic reform considering we have a new president in office who is willing to change the whole spectrum of politics. He has introduced a lot of changes and is willing to serve and put the people first.”
*Zaminkosi Nkosi is a media communications practitioner and a political commentator who has worked in Cosatu’s media and communications department.
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